Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Are utilities getting ahead of themselves (again)?

It's great to see utilities glom on to the smart metering/Automated Metering Infrastructure bandwagon, but I wonder, are utilities collectively biting off more they can chew?

The concept is great - it will enable demand response, improve utility operating efficiencies.

Although it may seem simple on the surface, implementing AMI comes with significant technical and operational hurdles from getting meter installers to figuring out how to manage all the data.

Now I'm all for utilities pushing the envelope on new technologies, and I look forward to living in the post-AMI world, but consider a few of the other bandwagons of years past (and future)- and who got caught up in them:

- Nuclear boom in the 1970's (TVA? Did they finally get out of their billions of debt?)
- Windpower - round 1, 1980's (Remember Kenetech?)
- Massive building of natural gas generators a few years ago (Calpine? Back on their feet yet?)
- nat. gas is too expensive, lets do coal 2003 (TXU? Scratched plans for a dozen coal plants?)
- Services convergence/Deregulation in 90's (Governor Gray Who? How many utilities?)
- nuclear comeback 2010?? (Exelon?)

Hopefully, the rush to AMI will not result in any big losers in the space, but it is worth reminiscing about past fads, and doing a little extrapolation.

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