I have a theory (and maybe it's obvious) that oil companies aren't building refineries because they're unable to demonstrate the 20- or 30-year ROI needed to get the $billion loan necessary to permit and build one in the first place. They'll try to squeeze the last bit of life out of the existing refineries before eventually shutting them down.
So what will the oil companies do then? I'd like to think they'd convert to pristine parks. But, many refineries tend to be located on waterfront property that happen to be an electric car or monorail ride away from city centers. So, I foresee the development of residential communities a la Denver Stapleton, Lowell's textile mills, the Presidio, or the old marine corps base near Irvine.
Imagine this parade of homes:
"The Chevron" in Martinez, CA - Just a ferry trip across the bay to San Francisco's financial district.
"Exxon Estates" Long Beach, CA - The next Malibu
"Mobil Manor" Mobile, Al - A beautiful place for an Eric Estrada-endorsed retirement community
"BP-Vista Valley" Tacoma, WA - a community of virtual offices for Microsoft's work-at-home employees
"Valero Project" - Galveston, TX - Gated luxury for ex-oil company execs
Benefits - the asphalt has already been poured. Residents will only need to keep the starbucks brewing to mask the smell of crude in the morning.
(please note the sarcasm. I don't endorse living on an old oil refinery. That can't be good for you.)
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